On The Tape with Danny Moses Ivy Zelman: "The Housing Survey Says..."
17 snips
Nov 5, 2025 
Ivy Zelman, founder of Zelman & Associates and renowned housing analyst, dives into the complexities of the housing market. She discusses the persistent affordability challenges and the impact of mortgage rate buy-downs on builders' margins. Ivy sheds light on the late innings of the new home absorption cycle, the varied demand across price points, and the implications of a K-shaped economy on younger buyers. She also warns about potential risks in manufactured housing and emphasizes the importance of proprietary survey data over traditional metrics.
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Rental Markets Slowed By Excess Supply
- Single-family rental and multifamily move-ins and occupancies are under pressure due to heavy supply.
- Turnover is low, which cushions operators, but new supply is still weighing on rents and occupancies.
A 4.5% Rate Threshold For Normalized Turnover
- Rates need to fall to roughly 4.5% to normalize housing turnover as a share of households.
- Use that rate target as a benchmark for when housing activity may materially recover.
Make Cash-Outs Cheaper To Free Up Equity
- Consider policy changes that lower upfront closing costs and loan-level pricing adjustments to enable cash-outs for debt relief.
- Reduced costs could let borrowers tap equity to pay down high-cost debt and improve household finances.
