Bloomberg Surveillance Outlook for Oil and Market All-Time Highs
9 snips
May 7, 2026 
Michael Conrath, J.P. Morgan retirement strategist, on longevity and Social Security tradeoffs. Richard Portes, London Business School economist, on private credit, public debt and fiscal risks. Cam Dawson, NewEdge Wealth CIO, on equity valuations, AI-driven earnings and investor positioning. They tackle market breadth, oil and energy volatility, and systemic risks in short, sharp conversations.
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Earnings Boom Driven By Narrow AI Cohort
- Rapid earnings growth is concentrated in a narrow cohort of AI-infrastructure names, so earnings drive valuations despite higher yields.
- Removing one-time gains, S&P earnings growth falls from 27% to ~16%, with semiconductors dominating margin expansion.
Market Returns Are Exceptionally Elevated
- Markets show supernormal returns recently, with rolling multi-year returns in the 98th percentile due to outsized gains in 2023–2025.
- S&P earnings are projected to grow ~21% in 2026, an extraordinary rise outside a recessionary rebound.
Margin Expansion Mostly Semiconductor Effect
- Operating margin gains are largely from semiconductors' fixed-cost absorption, not broad productivity improvements.
- Semiconductor margins rose from ~30% to ~45% in 12 months, skewing aggregate S&P margin metrics.