Defense & Aerospace Report DEFAERO Strategy Series [Feb 04, 26] Dr. Eugene Rumer on Latest Russia-Ukraine Headlines
Feb 12, 2026
Dr. Eugene Rumer, director of Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia program and former U.S. intelligence officer, provides expert analysis on the Russia–Ukraine conflict. He discusses battlefield shifts toward drone-led, small-unit fighting. He examines prospects for talks, wartime elections, U.S. security guarantees, the realism of big U.S.-Russia deals, and Europe’s need to bolster its defenses.
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US, Not Ukraine, Driving Negotiation Shifts
- So far the United States appears willing to change positions rather than Ukraine itself.
- Rumer says Ukraine resists conceding territories Russia does not fully control, making deals politically fraught.
Prepare For A Ceasefire, Not Lasting Peace
- Expect negotiators to craft a ceasefire rather than a durable peace.
- Treat proposed constructs like free economic zones skeptically until enforceable terms appear.
Security Guarantees Remain Ambiguous
- US security guarantees being discussed remain vague and largely rhetorical.
- Rumer cautions that proposals like NATO-style assurances lack clear, enforceable commitments today.