Down Round The Far-Flung Future of 2028
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Feb 25, 2026 A speculative 2028 scenario about AI upending economies and creating a “ghost GDP” sparks debate. Market tremors, headlines and stock moves are dissected alongside a memo claiming rapid AI replication of SaaS and mass layoffs. They debate whether displaced wages vanish or re-enter the economy, probe software’s unique exposure to automation, and explore emerging public anxiety and political backlash.
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Markets Get Retroactive Narratives For Jitters
- Market moves often get retrofitted narratives: a Substack or blog may be blamed for stock swings, but James cautions markets are noisy and multiple factors drive volatility.
- The Citirini memo's influence was likely amplified by pre-existing jittery sentiment, not a single causal trigger.
Ghost GDP Scenario From 2028 Thought Experiment
- Citirini's 2028 scenario argues AI will let competent developers replicate mid-market SaaS rapidly, driving white-collar layoffs and a 'ghost GDP' where output exists but consumer spending collapses.
- The claim hinges on rapid agentic automation replacing payroll, collapsing subscription-based revenue and triggering mortgage and credit market stress within a few years.