The Market Huddle NARRVOL (Guest: Sam Rines)
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Mar 28, 2026 Sam Rines, macro strategist at WisdomTree who studies geopolitics and narrative volatility. He discusses the Iran war and why it may be closer to winding down than markets expect. He explores implications for oil and gold, shifting defense technologies, and why Japan and select international markets look compelling. He also covers central bank reactions and where investors might redeploy capital.
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Oil Pain May Not Trigger U.S. Recession
- Higher oil hurts lower‑income consumers less economically than headline narratives imply because upper and middle incomes drive spending; energy gains can create regional job/wage offsets.
- Sam emphasizes US as world's largest energy producer so persistent high oil only derails growth if long‑lasting without wage/job offsets.
AI Spurs New Businesses Rather Than Instant Jobless Shock
- AI is creating business formation and lowering capital intensity, similar to AutoCAD replacing draft rooms, rather than an immediate mass unemployment shock.
- Sam points to record new business filings since COVID as evidence AI spurs entrepreneurial activity.
Account For Hawkish Europe If Energy Stays Elevated
- Expect European and UK central banks to lean hawkish if energy stays high; position for tighter policy there but not a broad Eurozone recession.
- Sam expects BOE and ECB to be more hawkish than other central banks and to avoid triggering a continent‑wide collapse.