Comparing Today to Bear Markets of the Past with Dan Matuszewski

Mar 5, 2026

Dan Matuszewski, co-founder of CMS Holdings and veteran crypto trader since 2013, and Beimnet Abebe, Galaxy Trading trader focused on geopolitics and market impacts. They discuss how today’s market compares to past Bitcoin bear markets. Conversations cover prediction markets and resolution issues, perps and liquidity venues, geopolitics’ effect on oil and BTC, and regulatory and banking shifts shaping crypto’s future.

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INSIGHT

Geopolitics Triggers Commodities and Crowded Trade Volatility

Geopolitical shocks cause appropriate commodity and equity repricing but often overdrive front-end fixed income moves.
Beimnet Abebe cites oil/Strait of Hormuz risk, insurance market freezes, and crowded trades (gold, silver, Korea) as drivers of outsized bond sell-offs.

ADVICE

Don't Short Bitcoin During Bear Market Rallies

Avoid shorting Bitcoin during sharp bear-market rallies since these are often 30–40% squeezes inside a downtrend.
Dan Matuszewski advises waiting for better levels and stacking buys below 70K with exits above ~75K.

ADVICE

Explicitly Ban Or Clarify Prediction Market Trading

Employers should explicitly ban or clarify prediction market trading in contracts to prevent insider-trading issues.
Dan points out many junior employees lack compliance training and companies will need clear rules like sports leagues and brokerages do.

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Alex Thorn talks with Dan Matuszewski (CMS Holdings) about the state of the market, how it compares to prior Bitcoin bear markets, prediction markets, perps, policy, and more. Alex also talks to Beimnet Abebe (Galaxy Trading) about geopolitics, market impacts, and why he’s near-term bullish on BTC.

Participants, along with Galaxy, hold a financial interest in Bitcoin (BTC). Galaxy regularly engages in buying and selling BTC, including hedging transactions, for its own proprietary accounts and on behalf of its counterparties. Galaxy also provides services to vehicles that invest in BTC. If the value of such assets increases, those vehicles may benefit, and Galaxy’s service fees may increase accordingly. The valuation in this communication is based on technical, fundamental, and market analysis and not on any formal valuation method. For more information, please refer to Galaxy’s public filings and statements. Cryptocurrencies, including BTC, are inherently volatile and risky and ultimate market movements may not align with this statement.For additional risks related to digital assets, please refer to the risk factors contained in filings Galaxy Digital Inc. makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) from time to time, including in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, filed with the SEC on November 10, 2025, available at ⁠www.sec.gov ⁠.

This episode was recorded on Wednesday, March 4, 2026.