Reuters Morning Bid Special Edition: Iran
Mar 2, 2026
Ron Bousso, Reuters Open Interest Energy columnist and oil-market analyst, breaks down the shock to energy markets. He describes a 10% oil jump, shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, and why triple-digit crude is possible if stoppages persist. He also covers broader market moves: risk-off flows, gold and dollar reactions, and renewed inflation and bond tensions.
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Immediate Oil Spike After Iran Conflict
- Oil prices jumped about 10% to around $80 two days into the Iran conflict.
- Ron Bousso notes prices were already elevated from a month of rising risk ahead of U.S. action, so today's move is significant but not wholly new.
Triple Digit Oil Is A Real Possibility
- Three-digit oil prices are a real possibility if disruptions persist because the Middle East supplies roughly 20% of global oil.
- Strait of Hormuz transit avoidance has produced a near standstill in shipments, and each day of disruption raises price pressure.
Monitor Duration Not Just Initial Shock
- Expect markets to watch duration of shipping disruption closely and seek signals before further rallies.
- Ron Bousso says global supply can absorb a few days of disruption but extended stoppages will force sharper price rises, so monitor transit resumption closely.