The Duran Podcast Energy collapse, supply chains WRECKED w/ Stanislav Krapivnik
21 snips
Mar 27, 2026 Stanislav Krapivnik, former supply-chain and procurement director in oil & gas with refinery and LNG project experience. He warns Britain may face collapse, details long lead times and repair limits for large refinery equipment. He links production shortfalls to fertilizer and food risks, outlines realistic policy responses, and warns of social unrest and geopolitical constraints.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Workforce And Infrastructure Bottlenecks Matter
- Skilled workforce shortages amplify delays because many high-end Gulf engineers are Western (American/British) and may not return amid insecurity.
- Restoring fields needs engineers, desalination, accommodation and logistics before production resumes.
No Simple Source To Fill Middle East Shortfall
- There is no quick replacement for lost Middle East barrels; to plug the gap you'd need production equal to two Russias.
- Russia produces ~11 mbd, exports ~6–6.5 mbd, and global shortfall is roughly 19–20 million barrels now.
Venezuela Offers Only Limited Short Term Relief
- Stanislav notes Venezuelan recovery is limited: worn-out fields yield ~800k–1m bpd and require ~$100bn and three years to reach 2m bpd.
- Political mismanagement and U.S. restrictions constrained Venezuela's short-term flex.