Marketplace All-in-One Bytes: Week in Review – Are we in an AI bubble?
Jan 30, 2026
David A. Kirsch, a historian and management professor who studies technological innovation, joins to weigh whether AI fits historical bubble patterns. He outlines four conditions that predict tech bubbles and explains how new technologies destroy expertise and create uncertainty. He also discusses infrastructure limits, AI’s fit with bubble criteria, and how the AGI narrative could change everything.
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Four-Factor Bubble Recipe
- Technological bubbles form when uncertainty, novice investors, investable instruments, and powerful narratives align.
- If all four factors appear, a boom — and possibly a bust — is likely, though timing and outcomes remain uncertain.
New Tech Destroys Expertise
- New technologies tend to destroy existing expertise and therefore generate deep uncertainty.
- That inherent uncertainty makes tech innovations especially prone to bubble dynamics compared with nontechnical assets.
Infrastructure Is The Timekeeper
- Infrastructure acts as a timekeeper for technological booms by governing diffusion and value realization.
- We shouldn't expect clear answers about AI's value until organizational and physical infrastructure mature over time.
