The Bulwark Podcast Josh Barro and Paige Cognetti: The World Is Going to Blame Trump
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Apr 1, 2026 
Paige Cognetti, Scranton mayor running for Congress focused on anti-corruption and practical local governance; Josh Barro, opinion writer and newsletter author known for economic and political analysis. They discuss how a war-driven oil shock will raise prices and reshape travel and work. They debate responsibility for the conflict, risks of stagflation, tariff myths, and cleaning up insider trading in Congress.
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Oil Shock Will Force Lifestyle And Travel Retrenchment
- An oil shock forces consumption down to available supply, meaning prices must rise enough to change behavior.
- Barro gives concrete examples: airlines cutting 5% of schedules and potential widespread cancellations, fewer road trips, and higher fares.
Voters Will Hold Trump Directly Responsible For Gas Pain
- Political blame will concentrate on the U.S. president for rising gas prices even when multiple international actors are involved.
- Barro warns Trump's public attempts to deflect onto NATO or Iran won't shield him because 'this time it is his fault'.
Iran War Creates Fed Policy Contradiction
- The Iran war complicates Fed policy because it pushes inflation up while weakening the labor market, creating conflicting signals.
- Barro explains competing forces: higher deficits and oil-driven CPI pressure versus recessionary deflation risks.