School of War Trump Says We’re ‘Winning’ in Iran. It’s More Complicated.
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Apr 3, 2026 Aaron MacLean, a former U.S. Marine and national security analyst, breaks down the conflict in Iran and U.S. options. He discusses the Strait of Hormuz closure, military and economic targets, feasibility of raids and seizures like Kharg Island, risks of escalation, and how politics and resources shape strategy. Short, sharp, and focused on the big operational questions.
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Nuclear Raid Appears Deprioritized
- Aaron MacLean interprets Trump's mention of satellite surveillance over nuclear sites as a signal that a risky special-operations raid is off the table for now.
- Trump framed surveillance plus long-range strikes as an alternative to sending Tier 1 forces into deeply buried, possibly booby-trapped Iranian sites.
Strait Remarks Revealed No Clear Plan
- MacLean hears competing plans in Trump's Strait of Hormuz remarks: allies seize oil, a negotiated reopening, or punitive strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure.
- That mix left markets unconvinced and created uncertainty about a concrete operational path to reopening the strait.
Prepare For Weeks Of Intensified Strikes
- Expect escalation risk: MacLean warns the U.S. will continue intense strikes for weeks and reserves the right to escalate absent a deal.
- He cites early signs like targeted infrastructure strikes (bridges) as samples of economic-targeting to come.