How to Fix It with John Avlon S2 Ep66: Trump’s War With the Fed Could Backfire (w/ Kenneth Rogoff)
Mar 15, 2026
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist, discusses risks to the U.S. dollar from rising debt, attacks on Fed independence, and geopolitical shocks. He explores what losing reserve status could mean, how energy and global competition play in, and which policy moves might shore up credibility. The conversation centers on systemic threats and long-term fiscal strategy.
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U.S. Is Insulated But Still Hurt By Oil Price Spikes
- U.S. consumers are relatively insulated from oil shocks because the U.S. is now a net oil exporter.
- Rogoff adds higher oil prices still ripple into food, transport, and can be recessionary if sustained.
Higher Oil Prices Help Russia But Hurt China
- Russia benefits from higher oil prices and diverted U.S. attention, while China is more vulnerable as an energy importer.
- Rogoff notes Russia gains revenue and strategic breathing room; China may be forced into negotiations to secure supplies.
China Faces Structural Limits Despite Its Challenge To The Dollar
- China can erode dollar share regionally but faces structural limits like overinvestment in infrastructure and real estate.
- Rogoff highlights decreasing returns in China’s infrastructure-heavy growth and struggles to create entrepreneurial demand.
