Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Stocks To Crash By 50%+, Silver To Surge To $300+? | Michael Oliver
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May 5, 2026 
Michael Oliver, technical analyst and founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, shares his long-term momentum-based market view. He warns a final rally could precede a major stock decline and explains momentum break levels and bond stress. He highlights a potential capital shift into commodities and big upside targets for silver if key momentum thresholds clear.
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Prepare Portfolios For A Multi Year Bear If Momentum Breaks
- Prepare for a multi-year bear if the S&P and NASDAQ momentum structures break their red-line floors, as prior U.S. bear markets commonly last 2.5–3 years.
- Reassess portfolio allocations because historical bear dimensions often include 50%+ equity declines; plan for downside scenarios now.
Commodities Are Reasserting After A Long Deflation
- Commodities are in an undervalued long-term position and are already showing momentum turnarounds separate from oil headlines.
- The Bloomberg Commodity Index turned up on annual momentum in October and is far below its 2008 peak, implying a secular capital rotation into commodities as stocks weaken.
Watch T Bond Momentum Because Higher Yields Could Trigger Crisis
- Expect long-term Treasury yields to resume higher because bond momentum uptrends have been broken and price bases failed.
- Monitor T‑bond momentum; a renewed leg down in bond price implies higher yields and systemic stress that will force central bank intervention.