The Line Does the West Want Out?
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Jan 27, 2026 Greg Jack, Senior VP at Ipsos Public Affairs and public-opinion researcher who led a new separatism survey. He explains how stress-testing questions reveal committed, conditional, and symbolic supporters. He fact-checks claims about Albertans wanting to join the U.S. and compares Alberta and Quebec motivations. He discusses petition logistics, potential turnout, and how national narratives can affect regional separatist sentiment.
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Separation Support Isn’t Monolithic
- Ipsos stress-tested separatist support by adding realistic costs and found the 30% baseline fractures into committed, conditional, and symbolic groups.
- Strong commitment falls roughly in half once people weigh passport loss, trade disruption, or economic pain.
Committed Separatists Are A Minority
- Committed separatists who would "die on this hill" are much smaller than headline figures suggest, around 10–15% in Alberta.
- Polls are a snapshot; engagement and campaigning could still shift those numbers.
‘Join the U.S.’ Is A Fringe Proposal
- The idea that most Albertans want to join the U.S. is unsupported; pro-joining-America views are a tiny subgroup within committed separatists.
- Joining the U.S. is likely under 10% and not a mainstream Alberta position.