The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 393. Debt Liquidity, Senior Housing's Surge, and the 2026 CRE Outlook with Chad Lavender of Newmark
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Apr 28, 2026 Chad Lavender, President of Capital Markets at Newmark with 15+ years and $50B+ in deals, shares capital-markets perspective. He discusses why debt liquidity makes this cycle different. He highlights senior housing's outperformance, the rise of GP-led recaps and continuation funds, and a Class A office rebound. He also covers active adult demand and why Dallas stays highly investable.
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Debt Liquidity Made This Cycle Different From The GFC
- This cycle differs from the GFC because abundant debt liquidity has largely prevented systemic distress.
- Unlike 2008, banks, CMBS, and cross-border capital remain active, creating more refinancing and recap opportunities.
Deal Flow Is Highly Idiosyncratic With More GP-Led Recaps
- Every deal is a unique 'snowflake' with different motives: recap, refinance, or sale, producing a wide range of transaction types.
- We're seeing narrowing bid-ask spreads, increased refinancing liquidity, and many GP-led recaps and continuation funds as LPs monetize and GPs reinvest.
Vet Operators By Reporting Fit And CapEx ROI
- Benchmark operator quality by financial reporting, cultural fit, and demonstrable competitive edge before partnering.
- Scrutinize an operator's business plan and expected ROI on CapEx to assess ability to generate operational alpha.