Deep Dish on Global Affairs Is China Quietly Winning the Iran War?
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Apr 23, 2026 
James Crabtree, distinguished fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and author, offers sharp geopolitical analysis. He discusses China’s real versus portrayed role in the Iran conflict. He explores whether China is exploiting the war, how US ties shape Beijing’s moves, and how India is recalibrating its energy and strategic partnerships.
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China Often Gets Credit It Didn't Earn
- Western observers overstate China's direct role in Middle East diplomacy.
- James Crabtree notes China often receives credit for deals (e.g., Saudi-Iran thaw) after other actors did the work and China simply 'put a bow on it'.
India Pivoted Toward Israel Under Modi
- India shifted from traditional ties with Iran toward closer ties with Israel under Narendra Modi.
- Crabtree explains Modi admires Israel's muscular nationalism and values its technology for India's needs, creating domestic backlash when India sided with Israel after the war began.
China Sees the World Through the US Relationship
- China views global events through the prism of its relationship with the United States.
- Crabtree says Beijing asks how Middle East instability affects US-China stability and core Chinese interests like energy and Taiwan.