Open Book with Anthony Scaramucci Trump Tariffs Overturned, $56T Debt Surge, AI Replacing Workers & Fed Cuts Debate
18 snips
Feb 25, 2026 
Michael Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital and former Fortress partner, joins to debate big-market shocks. They unpack tariffs being struck down, a looming $56T debt projection, Fed cut timing, and an AI labor shock that could displace middle-class jobs. Conversation also touches on crisis hedges, political incentives, and tech power shaping policy.
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Tariff Rebates Act Like Hidden Stimulus
- The Supreme Court ruling that struck down many 2025 China tariffs will return ~$135–$140 billion and act as fiscal stimulus.
- Michael Novogratz says rebates flow back to corporations then consumers slowly, steepening the yield curve and weakening the dollar.
Prepare For One Fast Fed Cut
- Expect at least one Fed cut priced into markets and possibly two if incoming data softens.
- Novogratz expects Kevin Warsh to cut quickly to reach his estimate of equilibrium policy before pausing and evaluating data-driven moves.
$56 Trillion Debt Creates A Thin Landing Path
- U.S. national debt could hit ~$56 trillion (~125% of GDP) by 2036, creating a potential Minsky moment if confidence evaporates.
- Novogratz suggests controlled inflation (3–3.5%) plus growth to 'eat away' debt is politically fraught but technically possible.