Michael Covel's Trend Following Ep. 1380: Bubble Time with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Mar 9, 2026
A monologue exploring whether AI frenzy is a genuine trend or a bubble. Comparisons to the dot‑com era and how market prices can detach from fundamentals. Practical talk on riding bubbles, managing exits using price signals, and handling sudden volatility without leverage. Tactical questions for participating in big moves without needing to believe the narrative.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Covel On AI Limits And No Persistent Memory
- Michael Covel describes being an 'anachronism' who wrote books the old-fashioned way while experimenting with AI.
- He argues consumer AI lacks persistent memory and isn't the 'assistant with a mind' most people imagine.
Price Follows Behavior Not Technological Truth
- Price rewards timing, positioning, and behavior rather than technological truth.
- Michael Covel compares AI to prior tech cycles (dot-com) where real tech existed but expectations outran time, creating bubbles.
Bubbles Are Powerful Trend Environments
- Bubbles create the strongest momentum and concentrate capital, making them powerful trend environments.
- Covel warns trend followers shouldn't avoid bubbles but should ride them and exit when behavior changes, not when narratives peak.