Exchanges Commodities Outlook: What’s Driving Oil, Gold, and Base Metals
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Jul 1, 2025 
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, dives into the intricate dance of global commodities. He reveals how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing oil prices in unpredictable directions. Gold is experiencing a bullish surge due to central bank diversification and a weaker dollar. Struyven also discusses the impact of impending tariffs on metal prices and highlights how rising defense spending could boost demand for commodities like copper and nickel.
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China’s Energy Diversification Trend
- China's strategy will shift toward diversifying energy supply and reducing foreign oil imports due to geopolitical risks.
- This will likely reduce oil and gas demand but boost demand for copper and green metals.
Strong Oil Supply Growth Expected
- Oil supply is growing four times faster than demand this year fueled by OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers outside US shale.
- US shale production may decline modestly due to lower prices despite recent record-high crude supply.
Heat Waves Tighten Power Markets
- Intense heat waves in the US, Europe, and China increase energy demand for cooling and strain power supply.
- US summer power markets are tight with risk of price spikes or outages, partly due to retirements and reliance on weather-dependent renewable energy.