One Rental At A Time Why are Rates Crashing with Strong Jobs and Fire GDP #'s
Feb 17, 2026
They dig into why 10-year yields dropped even with strong jobs and GDP numbers. They explain how imports can make GDP look healthier than it feels. They debate inflation measures, shelter costs, and Fed commentary. They flag metros gaining affordability and discuss millionaire migration and state tax risks. They touch on AI, disinflation, and community event plans for teens.
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Market Distrusts Headline Jobs Data
- Reported strong job gains are widely distrusted due to repeated negative revisions from the BLS.
- The host argues nobody believes the headline jobs data, which explains falling 10-year yields despite 'strong' jobs.
Falling Imports Can Inflate GDP
- GDP can appear stronger when imports fall because imports are subtracted from GDP.
- Reduced imports can raise GDP even though total domestic consumption actually declined.
GDP Growth Can Mask Consumption Decline
- A headline GDP jump can mask collapsing real consumption if the gain stems from fewer imports.
- The host shows GDP rising from 80 to 96 while actual goods consumed fall from 120 to 104 in his example.