Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition Daybreak Weekend: Fed Meeting, Europe Central Bank Decisions, Takaichi-Trump Meeting
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Mar 13, 2026 
Alistair Gale, Bloomberg reporter on Japan and regional security, outlines Takaichi’s Washington visit and Japan’s energy and defense priorities. Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics’ chief U.S. economist, previews Fed policy and inflation trends. They discuss Fed timing, oil-driven inflation risks, Japan’s energy vulnerability, and defense spending implications in short, punchy takes.
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Oil Shock Will Push Headline Up But Weaken Core
- Anna Wong expects the Fed to sharply raise its PCE inflation forecast driven by sustained ~$80 oil prices lifting headline inflation to around 3%.
- She argues higher oil acts like an income shock that raises headline but lowers core PCE, supporting eventual Fed easing rather than hikes.
Core Inflation Could Fall Even As Oil Rises
- Anna Wong still expects multiple rate cuts this year despite higher headline inflation because core PCE should fall as households spend more on energy and less on other goods.
- She cites the Fed's FURBUS model showing oil shocks boost headline but are deflationary for core PCE.
Labor Market Weakness Is The Fed's Bigger Risk
- The bigger near-term risk to the Fed's dual mandate is labor-market weakness after February's surprise payroll drop, not unanchored inflation expectations.
- Wong expects unemployment to climb into summer, shifting Fed focus to jobs and prompting cuts by midyear.