War on the Rocks No End in Sight? The Russo-Ukrainian War at the End of 2025
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Dec 23, 2025 
Join Mike Kofman, a researcher on Russian military affairs, and Dara Massicot, a defense analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, as they explore the complexities of the Russo-Ukrainian war. They discuss the stalled diplomacy, the implications of not reaching a ceasefire, and Russia's potential moves in 2026. The conversation delves into Ukraine's expanding strike capabilities against Russian shipping and the challenges of defending against drone attacks. Both experts also analyze Russia's technological advancements and manpower strains in a conflict that shows no signs of resolution.
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Article 5 Branding Is Largely Political
- 'Article 5–style' guarantees are legally vague and mean different things to different actors.
- As a bilateral promise, such branding primarily creates political trade space for Zelensky, not automatic military action.
Russia Wants A Veto-Capable Concert
- Russia's concept of 'security guarantees' envisions a concert of powers with veto rights, not Western mutual-defense treaties.
- Their Istanbul proposal sought guarantors who could block interventions by other parties.
Donetsk Concession Carries High Costs
- Ceding Donetsk would have outsized political and military effects inside Ukraine.
- Demilitarized zones run by Russian forces would effectively militarize and enable future offensives.