The Macro Minute with Darius Dale What matters more, AI disruption or bank deregulation?
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Feb 17, 2026 A debate on whether banking deregulation or AI-driven change will move markets more. Discussion of a possible AI capex bubble and fund managers pulling back from tech. Review of massive AI spending plans by mega-cap firms. Explanation of proposed Basel III tweaks that could loosen mortgage underwriting and accelerate credit. Notes on elevated medium-to-long-term crash risk despite lower near-term correction risk.
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Bank Deregulation Trumps AI Downside
- Bank deregulation currently poses a larger upside economic risk than AI disruption does as a downside risk.
- Investors are re-pricing tech amid concerns over heavy AI CapEx and potential profit deflation in non-tech sectors.
Fund Managers Pull Back On Tech
- Fund managers sharply cut technology exposure as AI CapEx worries mount.
- Survey respondents flagged over-investment in AI and the risk of an AI-driven credit shock.
Massive AI CapEx Is A Double-Edged Sword
- Mega-cap tech firms guided toward roughly $650 billion of AI CapEx by 2026.
- That scale underpins both growth and the risk of capital-intensity-driven market stress.