Federalist Radio Hour What’s Next In The War In Iran?
Mar 3, 2026
Jacob Olidort, chief research officer and director of American security at the America First Policy Institute, offers national security and Middle East analysis. He breaks down why the U.S. acted with Israel. He weighs messaging and multiple justifications. He assesses Iranian regime stability, regional coalitions isolating Tehran, and risks of broader escalation.
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U.S. Action Driven By Direct Threat Perception
- The administration rejected framing the campaign as merely preventing an Israeli action and instead asserts direct U.S. interest because Iran threatens Americans as 'big Satan' targeted by the regime.
- Olidort stresses the president sees Iran as a persistent threat warranting preemption, not merely managing allied impulses.
Regime Collapse Creates Unpredictable Threats
- Iran's internal collapse and the removal of Khamenei create unpredictable dynamics; Olidort warns remnants remain capable and may escalate even as the regime weakens.
- He emphasizes U.S. responsibility to continue targeting persistent threats even if regime change occurs.
Iranian Public Sentiment Is Fragmented And International
- Popular sentiment in Iran and the diaspora is mixed; many want the regime gone but not all will welcome U.S. involvement, complicating prospects for immediate pro-American transition.
- Olidort notes visible international support, including celebratory diaspora rallies, which broaden the chorus for change beyond Iranian borders.