Macro Voices MacroVoices #502 Tian Yang: A Whiff of Reflation?
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Oct 16, 2025 
In this discussion, Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, delves into leading indicators and their implications for growth and inflation. He presents a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, emphasizing resilient growth and a potential reflationary environment. Tian also compares current market conditions to the early 2000s, exploring recession risks and signaling from inventory rebuilding trends. He provides insights on rising inflation pressures and the recovery signs in China and the Eurozone, offering valuable trading strategies along the way.
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Hedge October Against Broad Volatility
- Keep tactical hedges through October amid elevated catalysts: earnings, Fed, and the Trump-Xi meeting.
- Watch cross-asset volatility and credit breadth; simultaneous deterioration signals broader de-risking.
Yield-Curve Steepening As A Risk Signal
- A market sign that Fed cuts are overreaching would be a sharp fair steepening of the yield curve at a cut, signaling limits to the benign macro setup.
- That steepening would be a warning trigger to reduce risk exposure.
AI CapEx Yet To Break The Profit Pool
- In the capital-cycle framework, semiconductors show improving capex and ROIC, while software capex looks weakest.
- Current marginal returns in AI-related capex still exceed cost of capital, so capex surge hasn't yet broken the profit pool.