The Commentary Magazine Podcast Failure to Launch
10 snips
Mar 17, 2026 
Jonathan Schanzer, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who focuses on Iran and Middle East security, breaks down Israeli strikes on Iran's missile production. He maps the shifting Lebanese front and Hezbollah's losses. He unpacks leadership assassinations, Iran's information blackout, and lingering drone and short-range rocket threats.
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Iran's Long Range Missile Production Has Been Crippled
- Israel destroyed Iran's missile production facilities, leaving Iran with roughly 500 long-range missiles and forcing a use-or-lose calculus.
- Jonathan Schanzer said this knocked Iranian long-range launches down ~90% from the first day and lets Israel shift focus north toward Hezbollah.
Israel Is Pushing To Create A Southern Lebanon Buffer
- Israel is conducting limited ground operations in southern Lebanon to retake territory and reduce the eight-second warning window for incoming fire.
- The immediate goal is a buffer zone south of the Litani River and sustained strikes on Dahia, Hezbollah's Beirut stronghold.
Hezbollah's Rocket Stockpile Is Smaller But More Dangerous
- Hezbollah's arsenal was about 150,000 projectiles pre-war and may be reduced to ~20% (≈30,000) now, but many remaining rockets are more advanced and longer-range.
- Schanzer warned some can reach Tel Aviv and Damona and emphasized concern over precision guided munitions.