This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Iran vs. the Gulf – Is there any going back to normal?
Mar 26, 2026
Alison Minor, director at the Atlantic Council who studies Middle East integration, breaks down the Gulf crisis. She explores why the UAE was targeted and how Gulf states balance military limits with non‑kinetic responses. She discusses proxy warfare, risks to shipping and oil, and the strain on mediators and regional alliances.
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Gulf Shift From Confrontation To Cautious De escalation
- Gulf states have long seen Iran as a core regional threat and moved from confrontation to de-escalation after 2019 fears of full-scale war.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE pivoted toward détente until current escalation proved those 2019 fears justified.
Why The UAE Was Targeted Heavily
- The UAE became a prime target due to proximity to Iran, its image as a stability hub, and normalization with Israel.
- Iran used attacks to puncture Dubai's oasis reputation and maximize political and economic leverage.
Economic And Psychological Toll On Gulf States
- Drone and missile strikes produced major psychological and economic damage across the Gulf beyond physical casualties.
- Attacks reduced oil and gas output by an estimated 6–10 million barrels per day and crippled tourism and logistics.