At Any Rate Global Commodities: Going Against the Grain on Oil
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Feb 20, 2026 A lively debate over recent bullish sentiment from London and why the hosts push back. A deep dive into resilient Russian supply, shifting buyers in India and China, and limited Iran risk. Discussion of accumulating global inventories and how refinery changes reshape stock norms. A cross-asset look at oil’s relative valuation.
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Market Optimism Vs Oil Fundamentals
- Market optimism at International Energy Week centered on forced Russian cuts, Middle East conflict risk, low OECD stocks, and macro flows into commodities.
- Natasha Kaneva argues these macro-driven bullish views are misplaced for oil and that recent strength is geopolitics-driven.
Price Spike Driven By Temporary Events
- Natasha Kaneva says recent oil gains came from short-lived supply disruptions and winter demand spikes rather than sustained fundamentals.
- She expects geopolitical rallies may persist briefly but will fade as global fundamentals stay soft.
Plan For Needed Production Cuts
- Prepare for eventual production cuts to avoid surplus-driven price weakness in 2027 and to stabilize prices near $60 Brent.
- Expect voluntary or involuntary cuts of ~2mbd will be necessary later this year.