The Iran Podcast Tehran’s Finger is on the Trigger
Feb 6, 2026
Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow and analyst of Iranian politics and diplomacy, joins BBC conversations. She breaks down stalled diplomacy, shifting U.S. demands, and recent attacks. She explains military buildups, Tehran’s warnings, and the domestic crackdown after protests. She maps how Iran, though constrained, can still inflict regional damage and raise the risk of wider conflict.
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Shifting Goalposts Undermined Diplomacy
- Both Washington and Tehran express interest in diplomacy, but their demands have drifted apart, making a deal unlikely without compromise.
- Changing goalposts during negotiations and attacks on Iran's nuclear program unraveled trust and derailed talks.
Locked, Loaded, And Talking
- The US military buildup signals readiness for attack while still pursuing diplomacy, creating mixed messages.
- Iran reciprocates with serious threats to hit U.S. bases and Israel if attacked, raising the risk of escalation.
Tehran's Threats Raise Regional Stakes
- Tehran presents credible retaliatory threats and warns regional neighbors that U.S. bases and Israel will be targets.
- Those warnings increase the chance of wider regional chaos if conflict begins.