Bloomberg Surveillance PCE and the US Economic Outlook
23 snips
Aug 29, 2025 
Michael McKee, Bloomberg News' International Economics & Policy correspondent, delves into pressing economic issues. He discusses PCE trends and the implications for inflation, labor, and potential Fed rate cuts. The conversation also covers the intricate relationship between tariffs and U.S. economic dynamics, highlighting consumer behavior amid changing prices. McKee further analyzes the euro-dollar exchange rate's future and shares insights on emerging markets and their resilience amidst global economic shifts.
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Watch Gas And Food Prices Closely
- Track salient prices like gas and eggs because they drive inflation expectations.
- Monitor food and energy closely since these items shape consumer expectations and Fed sensitivity.
Fed Monitors ADP And Unemployment Closely
- The Fed watches job creation and the unemployment rate closely and also tracks weekly ADP-derived labor indicators.
- ADP trends have deteriorated since the last report and feed Fed monitoring between official prints.
Unemployment Pace Matters More Than Level
- Job gains have slowed but unemployment hasn't jumped; Fed cares more about the pace of unemployment rising.
- Labor‑force participation and immigration shifts complicate unemployment interpretation.