The Angle from T. Rowe Price 2026 Global Market Outlook: Minds, machines, and market shifts
Dec 3, 2025
Join Sebastian Page, asset allocation expert, Ken Orchard, a fixed income specialist, and David Giroux, equity portfolio manager, as they dive into the 2026 Global Market Outlook. They explore the potential of AI as a growth driver versus the risk of a bubble. Ken discusses rising debt issuance from AI firms, while Sebastian highlights market concentration and enduring fundamentals. David emphasizes focusing on high-quality equities over macro predictions, as the team shares insights on navigating inflation risks and international opportunities in the evolving market landscape.
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Valuation Barbell Across Markets
- US market concentration is at an all-time high but broader global valuations look reasonable.
- A valuation 'barbell' exists: mega-cap tech expensive while many small/mid and international stocks trade near averages.
Debt Issuance Rises Without Spread Stress
- AI-related firms have sharply increased debt issuance but many started with low leverage.
- So far corporate spreads haven’t widened materially despite rising tech issuance.
Macro Signals Are Conflicted
- Several classic recession indicators are flashing red but strong growth, fiscal stimulus, and AI capex could offset them.
- The macro picture is mixed and can shift quickly, so current strength may not persist.