Geopolitical Cousins

They Don't Want the Smoke

117 snips

Mar 10, 2026

A rapid debrief on oil price whiplash and how presidential rhetoric ripples through markets. They parse mixed war messaging and Iran’s surprising succession. Discussion covers shrinking drone attacks, the unique danger of the Strait of Hormuz, and realistic limits to rerouting oil. They close by weighing Iran’s stamina, regional isolation, and timelines for reducing Gulf oil dependence.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Recorded Drop In Iranian Attack Tempo

Attack data show Iranian missile strikes and drone barrages have declined recently.
Jacob cites Bloomberg-monitored data: March 9th had a surprisingly low-volume attack and drone pace fell below ~160/day.

INSIGHT

Iranian Regime Might Not Want Prolonged Pain

Iran may lack appetite for prolonged punitive bombing because its elite are kleptocrats, not zealots.
Jacob argues the regime is corrupt and modern, implying limited willingness to endure carpet-bombing and economic pain.

INSIGHT

Simple Attacks Can Still Close Hormuz

Destroying military hardware doesn't eliminate asymmetric threats to Hormuz; simple attacks can still close it.
Jacob warns one tanker attack a month by irregular actors can disrupt the strait regardless of Iran's conventional losses.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode