Prof G Markets Nvidia Says $1T Is Coming — The Market Isn’t Buying It
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Mar 18, 2026 
Gil Luria, D.A. Davidson tech analyst, digs into Nvidia’s trillion-dollar chip forecast, shaky market confidence, AI infrastructure spending, and whether physical AI could prolong the boom. Alice Han, Greenmantle director and China watcher, explores Beijing’s leverage over Iran, why it stays publicly distant, and how Middle East turmoil could reshape China’s diplomatic posture.
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Why Nvidia's Trillion Dollar Forecast Fell Flat
- Gil Luria says Nvidia’s $1 trillion chip-sales target is credible, but the muted stock reaction shows investors doubt the data-center boom lasts past 2026.
- He sees a market contradiction: investors price in massive AI disruption while simultaneously assuming the infrastructure build-out will peak soon.
Why Jensen Huang Gets More Credibility Than Musk
- Gil Luria trusts Jensen Huang’s forecast more than Elon Musk-style projections because Nvidia historically guided cautiously and only recently extended its horizon.
- Huang said prior Blackwell and Rubin guidance was too low and noted the trillion-dollar figure excludes CPUs, networking, and Rubin Ultra.
Why The Market Doubts AI Capex Despite AI Hype
- Gil Luria argues investor skepticism reflects real concern that hyperscalers still lack enough AI revenue to justify spending hundreds of billions on data centers.
- He thinks returns will arrive because OpenAI, Anthropic, consumers, and enterprises keep ramping usage, while robotics extends the AI cycle several years later.