The Global Story I wargamed Iran for the Pentagon - here is how it could end
10 snips
Apr 2, 2026 Ilan Goldenberg, former senior U.S. defense official who led the Pentagon’s Iran team, discusses how war games shape policy. He walks through likely opening moves between Israel, the U.S. and Iran. He examines risks of raids on nuclear material, why full invasion is implausible, the dangers of empowering hardliners, and what realistic de-escalation might require.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
How War Games Reveal Opponent Motives
- War games place policymakers into role-played scenarios to reveal likely actor motivations and decision points.
- Ilan Goldenberg says the value is forcing thinking about what actors value, not predicting exact outcomes.
Israel Strike Is Typical Conflict Trigger
- An Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites often triggers Iranian responses but initially limited to avoid provoking U.S. entry.
- Goldenberg notes Israel usually starts step one and the U.S. faces hard choices about the remaining nuclear program.
U.S. Involvement Turns Iran From Restraint To Retaliation
- If the U.S. becomes deeply involved, Iran shifts from tactical restraint to maximal retaliation.
- Games showed Iran would raise costs via attacks on bases, oil infrastructure and potentially close the Strait of Hormuz.