E309: Why Most VCs Firms will Die by 2030

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Feb 20, 2026

Camilo Acosta, founder of Perceptive Ventures and former senior AI engineer at Meta, focuses on agentic AI and early-stage investing. He discusses agentic systems replacing judgment and action, why incumbents leave startup-sized openings, how AI reshapes labor and capital, the risks to emerging VC firms, and why founder psychographics and audio-first interfaces matter for the next era.

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INSIGHT

Incumbent Scale Creates Startup Windows

Big tech avoids markets that are 'too small' relative to their scale, leaving openings for startups.
Camilo notes a $10B outcome is small to Big Tech but ideal for venture investors.

ADVICE

Invest By Working Back From Agentic Futures

Build investments and products by working backwards from an agentic future for each industry.
Avoid short-term co-pilot bets and prioritize companies that fit a fully agentic vision, Camilo advises.

INSIGHT

AI Will Reshape Asset Allocation

AI will touch every asset class and change allocator roles, possibly automating models like the Yale endowment.
Camilo warns LPs and PE firms to reassess portfolios as AI reshapes industries and operations.

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What happens when AI stops assisting humans and starts replacing decision-making itself? David Weisburd speaks with Camilo Acosta about the rise of agentic AI, why incumbents still leave massive openings for startups, and how AI will reshape labor, venture capital, and entire asset classes. Camilo explains how investing ahead of regulation, betting on founders over ideas, and building for a fully agentic future define the next era of venture.

Highlights:

Why agentic AI replaces prediction, judgment, and action—not just tasks
Lessons from building products at Meta and founding startups
How incumbents’ scale creates opportunity rather than safety
Why $10B outcomes are “too small” for Big Tech but ideal for VCs
The danger of competing with platforms that control distribution
Why copilots miss the point of where AI is going
AI’s uneven impact across regulated vs. unregulated industries
How AI will disrupt private equity, asset allocation, and the Yale Model
The extinction-level event facing emerging VC managers
Why building a firm is fundamentally a branding and marketing exercise
Founder psychographics, ruthlessness, and investing pre-idea
Why some of the best founders are the hardest to work with
Audio-first interfaces as the next major compute platform shift

Guest Bio:

Camilo Acosta is the Founder and Managing Partner of Perceptive Ventures, an early-stage fund focused on agentic AI. He is a former startup founder and CEO whose company was acquired, and previously served as a senior AI engineering leader at Meta, where he helped run multi-billion-dollar product suites. Camilo invests with a thesis-driven approach centered on agentic systems, founder psychographics, and long-term technological disruption across industries.

Our Podcast now receives more than 300,000 downloads a month. Are you interested in sponsoring an episode? Please email David Weisburd at david@weisburdcapital.com.

We’d like to thank AlphaSense for sponsoring this episode!

Sponsor:

AlphaSense is the AI-powered market intelligence platform trusted by 85% of the S&P 100, helping investment professionals make faster, more confident, data-driven decisions. Built for hedge funds, asset allocators, private venture capital firms, and investment bankers, AlphaSense uses advanced AI and powerful search across premium proprietary content to surface the insights that matter most—before the market moves. Elevate your research and stay ahead of the competition. Visit https://www.alpha-sense.com/howiinvest/ to learn more.

Stay Connected with David Weisburd:

X/Twitter: @dweisburd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dweisburd/ Weisburd Capital: https://www.weisburdcapital.com/

Stay Connected with Camilo Acosta:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/camiloacosta/

Questions or topics you want us to discuss on How I Invest? Email us at david@weisburdcapital.com.

Disclaimer:

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any investment strategy. All opinions expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not represent the views of Weisburd Capital. Participants may hold positions or have financial interests in the companies, funds, or investments discussed. Any references to specific investments are for illustrative purposes only. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and any forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Any third-party data or opinions have not been independently verified. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisors before making any investment decisions.

(0:00) Introduction (1:12) Distribution power and AI's disruptive potential (3:27) Framework for AI disruption and future opportunities (9:42) Conceptualizing an agentic AI future (10:53) AI's impact on asset classes and investment strategies (13:02) Strategies for emerging VC managers to survive (14:22) The significance of a strong LP network (17:14) Learning from investment misses: team vs. idea (18:44) Balancing AGI safety and national security (19:32) Founder ruthlessness and its effects (21:54) Ego and humility in venture capital (23:01) Managing relationships with challenging founders (25:05) Future of computing platforms (26:38) Career advice for aspiring tech professionals (28:29) Big tech vs. entrepreneurship for career start (29:36) Closing remarks