Chip Stock Investor Podcast

Are We Selling Oracle (ORCL) Stock?

Dec 12, 2025
Oracle is making bold moves with a $15 billion increase in capital spending, yet isn’t boosting revenue expectations, raising eyebrows among investors. The hosts discuss the implications of their negative $10 billion free cash flow and a notable sale of their chip unit to SoftBank, which reflects a push for chip neutrality. They also clarify the nuances of 'Remaining Performance Obligations' and sound alarms about the company's debt nearing $110 billion, leading to a strategic decision to engage in tax-loss harvesting.
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INSIGHT

CapEx Ramp Without Revenue Raise

  • Oracle is heavily increasing CapEx for AI/data centers without raising revenue guidance for FY2026.
  • The market wants proof that large RPO backlogs will convert into near-term revenue.
ANECDOTE

Using Fiscal.ai For Financial Modeling

  • The hosts promote Fiscal.ai as a tool to attach financial numbers to projects like Stargate.
  • They claim it helps compare hyperscaler investments and find better buys.
INSIGHT

RPO Is Expected, Not Guaranteed

  • Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) reflect expected, not guaranteed, future revenue.
  • A growing RPO alone doesn't satisfy investors without monetization and shorter conversion timelines.
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