Tariffs Backfire: Factory Collapse, Layoffs Explode, Dollar Free Fall

Feb 12, 2026

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The data is not subtle. Layoffs are spiking, the dollar is weakening, travel is slowing, private credit is cooling, and nuclear arms control just took a step backward. Here is what that means.

WHAT YOU’LL LEARN IN THIS EPISODE

- Why January layoffs reached their highest level since 2009

- What post-tariff manufacturing losses reveal about policy outcomes

- How a weakening dollar affects markets and consumers

- Why international travel to the U.S. is declining

- What cooling private credit markets signal for AI and tech

- What Gallup’s global survey reveals about economic anxiety

- Why the expiration of the START treaty matters

- What nuclear proliferation risks look like in 2026

- Why reports of Russian satellite interception are concerning

TIMESTAMPS

00:00 – Global macro stress and policy backdrop

00:24 – January layoffs hit highest level since 2009

00:54 – Manufacturing retreat post tariffs

01:22 – Dollar decline and implications

01:43 – International travel downturn

02:08 – Private credit cooling and AI exposure

02:35 – Global economic anxiety from Gallup survey

03:10 – START treaty expiration explained

04:06 – Nuclear proliferation risks

04:26 – Russia and European satellite interception

05:21 – Closing thoughts

ECONOMY

- Challenger report on record January 2026 layoffs: https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/

- Public concerns: democracy, economy, inflation, housing: https://apnews.com/article/poll-gallup-top-issue-democracy-economy-inflation-housing-2b04063cf966a7227715b85410fbd4fa

- New START collapse amid global nuclear arms race: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/us/politics/new-start-nuclear-arms-control.html

- Manufacturing retreat persists despite tariffs: https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-manufacturing-is-in-retreat-and-trumps-tariffs-arent-helping-d2af4316

- Travel to US fell: deep dive into travel economics: https://www.ft.com/content/8f6d4196-6f61-4be9-8cb7-1d93253e4e8b

- Dollar crashing: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-hits-two-week-low-093834356.html

- Nuclear arms control era ends: implications: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/us/politics/new-start-nuclear-arms-control.html

- Russia intercepts European satellites: space security update: https://www.ft.com/content/cd08c49c-658e-49c9-9a15-234f2bfc2074

- Why restarting nuclear testing is a terrible idea: https://youtu.be/g0RM9WZ0ybg

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