Iran: The Latest Wargaming WW3: how and where the next global conflict could actually unfold
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Jan 2, 2026 Peter Apps, a Reuters global defense commentator and British Army reservist, explores the somber prospect of World War III. He estimates a 30-35% chance of conflict within the next decade, highlighting flashpoints like Estonia and Ukraine. Peter emphasizes the lessons from the early Cold War and critiques current defense strategies. He discusses the importance of leadership in deterrence, the implications of cybersecurity and space in warfare, and reflects on his background that influences his insights on modern conflicts.
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Cold War Parallels Matter More Than 1930s
- Apps compares today more to the early Cold War than the 1930s because deterrence structures then worked.
- NATO's formation established clear lines that helped prevent wider escalation in Europe.
2024 As An Inflection Point
- Apps identifies 2024 as the year leaders finally acknowledged the real risk, partly due to political changes.
- Trump's statements about defending allies forced NATO and partners to reassess deterrence assumptions.
Make Front Lines Prickly And Clear
- Make front-line states appear too costly to seize by visibly reinforcing them and signalling resolve.
- Avoid ambiguity about who will respond because clear deterrence reduces the chance of miscalculation.
