Best of the Spectator Americano: what role will Turkey play in the Iran conflict?
Mar 5, 2026
Owen Matthews, Russia correspondent and Middle East expert, offers on-the-ground perspective. He discusses the intercepted missile over Turkey and the uncertain Turkey–Iran relationship. He examines reports of the US and Israel courting Kurdish forces and the risks of proxy blowback. He weighs Turkey's regional role and how China and oil shape strategic interests.
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Turkey Balances Relations With Iran
- Turkey maintains pragmatic ties with Iran despite tension, trading energy and sharing intelligence rather than outright hostility.
- Owen Matthews warns Iran attacking Turkey would be "suicidal" because Ankara acts as an honest broker with deep economic links.
Kurds Are Central To US Proxy Plans
- US and Israel reportedly consider arming Iranian Kurds to pressure the Islamic Republic as a proxy destabilization strategy.
- Matthews notes Ankara fears this intensely because Turkey suffered a 35-year Kurdish insurgency and pro-Kurdish parties are kingmakers.
Proxy Regime Change Often Backfires
- Past proxy-led regime changes (Iraq, Syria, Libya) show high risk of blowback and chaotic outcomes when external powers rely on local proxies.
- Matthews argues limited boots plus local fighters often creates power vacuums that harm both the country and US interests.