Alternate Shots with Richard Haass and John Ellis Strait Talk or Dire Straits: Episode 21
Mar 22, 2026
A fast-paced look at how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could squeeze global fuel supplies. They tackle low-tech threats like sea mines and drones, the impracticalities of convoying tankers, and the insurance panic around crew safety. Strategic tradeoffs get focus: blockades, China’s calculations, and how US attention in the region reshapes global readiness and politics.
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Strait Still Vulnerable Despite Degraded Iranian Power
- The U.S. has degraded Iran's long-range strike and air capabilities but not removed Iran's ability to make the Strait of Hormuz too risky to use.
- Richard Haass notes small weapons, drones, and mines in narrow channels can create outsized disruption and Iran can rapidly regenerate drone production.
Insurance And Crew Risk Drive Shipping Decisions
- Insurance, crew safety, and the tiny cost-effective weapons change commercial calculus and can halt traffic through the Strait.
- Haass warns escorting tankers is impractical because naval escorts create disproportionate risk and poor force-to-value math.
Time Favors Iran Because U.S. Has Many Global Priorities
- Iran believes time favors it because the U.S. faces multiple global priorities and domestic political pressure.
- Haass compares this to guerrilla wars where the actor 'wins' by not losing while a distant great power loses patience.