Morning Call Morning Call 4/2/26
Apr 2, 2026
Lynn Alden, founder of Lynn Alden Investment Strategy and macro investor, joins to discuss big-picture risks. She talks about stagflation concerns, fiscal dominance, and why cash can act as a near-term haven. The conversation touches on portfolio implications and market reactions to geopolitical and energy shocks.
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Gulf Sees Iran Holding Strait Leverage
- Gulf reaction was skeptical that Iran would relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz; Tehran signaled it will allow non‑U.S./Israeli vessels through only after coordination.
- Regional outlook: Iran intends to keep leverage over the waterway, complicating oil flows.
Gas Prices Are The First Macro Channel Of The War
- Michael Pierce expects March jobs to predate the war impact and forecast ~+75k nonfarm payrolls, while March inflation (gasoline) will show the first war effects.
- He estimates higher gasoline could add nearly 1 percentage point to March inflation.
Timing Mismatch Between Refunds And Fuel Pain
- Tax refund timing may temporarily bolster consumer spending even as higher gas prices erode purchasing power later; each $0.10 rise in gas cuts ~$11–12bn from consumer wallets.
- If the war persists, the expected $60bn refund boost could be wiped out by fuel costs.