The Globalist A look ahead to 2026
Jan 1, 2026
In this insightful discussion, guests tackle the future of Europe with Gorana Gergic, who highlights the need for defense autonomy amid shifting US support. Senior economist Stefan Angrich warns of a potential slowdown in the Asia-Pacific, driven by weakening exports and the challenges of AI demand. Juliet Linley reflects on Pope Leo XIV's impactful first year, emphasizing his outreach to youth and traditionalists. Lastly, Carlotta Ribello shares a sneak peek into Davos' soft-power diplomacy and key global events to watch in 2026.
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Asia's Export-Driven Vulnerability
- Asia-Pacific growth faces a slowdown as the export-led 'sugar rush' from 2025 fades and trade barriers rise.
- Weak domestic demand across many countries means slower growth unless internal consumption and investment improve.
AI Boom Is Powerful But Cyclical
- The AI and semiconductor boom lifted economies like Taiwan, but the cycle will peak and likely slow, creating downside risk for chip-dependent economies.
- Business models around AI remain uncertain, so growth tied to semiconductors may not be sustained indefinitely.
Yen Weakness Driven By Speculation
- The yen's weakness exceeds what interest-rate spreads would justify and looks driven by speculative trading, complicating forecasts for rapid reappreciation.
- Moody's expects gradual yen appreciation, but not the swift correction many in Japan desire.