TED Talks Daily Is luck random — or can you cultivate it? | Christian Busch
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Mar 17, 2026 
Christian Busch, a scientist studying serendipity and innovation, explores whether luck can be shaped. He shares how losing his home in the LA wildfires became a real-life test of his ideas. He introduces “zemblanity,” maps four kinds of luck, and looks at how surprises, uncertainty, grief, and new beginnings can collide.
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Christian Busch Lived His Research During The LA Fires
- Christian Busch lost his home in the 2025 Pacific Palisades wildfire while trying to submit a conference paper during evacuation.
- He was hosing the house with one hand, holding a laptop with the other, then later noticed small moments of joy like meeting old friends at the hotel.
Zemblanity Explains Bad Luck Built Into Systems
- Zemblanity is misfortune by design when a fragile system makes disaster look random even though it was built in.
- Busch ties the fire damage to empty reservoirs, weak truck predeployment, uncleared brush, poor coordination, and everyday versions like missed flights from zero buffer time.
The Luck Matrix Separates Passive And Active Luck
- Busch separates luck into four types by crossing positive versus negative with passive versus active.
- Bad luck and good luck happen to us, zemblanity is designed misfortune, and serendipity is active luck shaped by how we engage with surprises.