The Texas Senate Primaries Get Messy

Feb 9, 2026

Patrick Svitek, a long‑time Texas political reporter, breaks down the messy Texas Senate primaries. He walks through the Cornyn‑Paxton‑Hunt GOP dynamics and the Tallarico‑Crockett Democratic contest. He highlights the Tarrant County upset, shifting Latino and Black coalitions, immigration’s rising salience, and how scandals and spending could shape November matchups.

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INSIGHT

Democratic Nomination Turned On Electability

Jasmine Crockett's late entry reshaped the Democratic primary and turned electability into a central debate.
James Talarico has built a more traditional, better-funded campaign and emphasizes outreach to a broad electorate.

INSIGHT

Two Competing Paths To Win Texas

There's no settled answer on whether to chase Republicans or expand turnout among new voters in Texas.
Beto O'Rourke's inclusive 2018 campaign is the closest recent model for statewide success.

ADVICE

Don't Rely On Name ID Alone

High name ID helps but it's risky to enter late and not run a full primary campaign.
Launch disciplined organizing and paid advertising immediately after filing to convert name recognition into votes.

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Heads up: We have a live show scheduled for Wednesday, March 4 at the Comedy Cellar in New York City! Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and I will share our reactions from the Texas primaries and much more. You can get tickets here.

Primary season is starting with a bang in just three weeks. Texans will decide which Democrat and Republican they’d like to see face off in a potentially competitive Senate election this fall.

Arkansas and North Carolina will also head to the polls on March 3, but few contests across the country compare to the matchups in Texas. On the Democratic side, the race is primarily between state Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. On the Republican side, it’s incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt.

Both primaries feature some similarities: a better-funded, more mild-mannered establishment favorite on one side — Talarico and Cornyn — and a more bombastic presence known for riling up the base on the other — Crockett and Paxton. Of course, there are plenty of differences, too, which we’ll get into. For one, the Republican primary appears likely to head to a runoff.

All of this comes shortly after a special state Senate election in historically Republican Tarrant County resulted in a 30-percentage-point swing to the left. Democrat Taylor Rehmet won by 14 points in a district Trump carried by 17. That gives Democrats some hope in their pursuit of winning a Senate race in Texas for the first time since 1988, though there’s plenty of disagreement within the party over what that path might look like.

Today, we take a look at both Senate primaries in Texas, as well as the broader political environment in the state at a time when one of Republicans’ biggest success stories — gains with Latino voters — looks seriously imperiled. With me to do that is Patrick Svitek, a political reporter who has long covered Texas at The Texas Tribune and the Houston Chronicle and most recently covered national politics at The Washington Post.

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