Are We Heading Toward a Stalemate in Iran? – with Dennis Ross

Mar 26, 2026

Dennis Ross, former U.S. diplomat and Middle East negotiator now at The Washington Institute, breaks down whether current strikes on Iran yield real strategic change. He discusses degraded Iranian strike capacity, risks of reconstitution and nuclear material, the leverage of the Strait of Hormuz, and the dangers of mission creep and regional escalation.

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INSIGHT

Iran's Actions Made The Conflict Inevitable

The war was provoked by Iran's resumed regional proxy strategy and nuclear/missile push after the June War, not unprompted aggression.
Amb. Dennis Ross cites Iran's half trillion dollar nuclear investment and renewed threats as direct causes for action.

ADVICE

Explain Objectives Before Launching Military Action

Leaders must clearly state objectives to match means and secure domestic and international support before a major military campaign.
Ross argues the administration should have announced aims like preventing a nuclear Iran and shrinking missile capabilities and planned Hormuz contingencies first.

INSIGHT

Targeting The Production Chain Reduces Reconstitution Speed

Strikes have significantly degraded Iran's production chain for ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles, reducing near-term threat.
Ross emphasizes attacking component manufacturing across propulsion, guidance and warhead integration to delay reconstitution.

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Host Aviva Klompas is joined by Ambassador Dennis Ross to assess where the war with Iran stands several weeks in and whether the current trajectory is leading toward a meaningful outcome or a prolonged stalemate.

While Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly degraded and key infrastructure has been damaged, the broader strategic picture remains unsettled. The regime is still intact, continues to launch attacks across the region, and retains leverage over global energy markets through the Strait of Hormuz. This raises a central question: what has this campaign actually achieved, and what can it realistically achieve from here?

The conversation examines the gap between tactical success and strategic clarity, including what the United States is ultimately trying to accomplish and how “success” should be defined. Ross explores whether weakening Iran’s capabilities is enough to change its long-term behavior, or whether the current approach risks leaving the core threat intact.

They also discuss Iran’s ability to rebuild with support from China, Russia, and North Korea, its use of energy disruption as a form of deterrence, and the indicators that would signal meaningful pressure on the regime. Finally, the episode considers the risks ahead, from mission creep to broader regional escalation, and what policymakers should be watching as the war continues to unfold.

Guest Bio

Ambassador Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He also teaches at Georgetown University’s Center for Jewish Civilization. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping U.S. involvement in the Middle East peace process, dealing directly with the parties as the U.S. point man on the peace process in both the George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. He served two and half years as special assistant to President Obama and National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, spending the first 6 months of the Administration as the special advisor on Iran to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. His newest book is Statecraft 2.0: What America Needs to Lead in a Multipolar World (Oxford University Press, March 2025).