Judging Freedom Prof. John Mearsheimer : The Future of Great Power Politics
May 12, 2026
Prof. John Mearsheimer, a realist political scientist known for blunt analyses of great-power politics, discusses the fallout of the Iran war, shifting alignments among Russia, China and Turkey, and limits of U.S. leverage with China. He critiques U.S. military depletion and improvisational diplomacy, and maps how power and wealth are moving eastward.
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Neoconservative Wars Have Systemic Failures
- John Mearsheimer says neoconservative strategies (Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Iran) have largely failed and lacked sustainable victory plans.
- He cites Robert Kagan's Atlantic admission and the pattern of repeated strategic miscalculations as evidence.
Air Power Alone Can't Deliver Regime Change
- Mearsheimer argues the US/Israel assumed air power alone could topple Iran and secure regime change, which history shows rarely works.
- He emphasizes regime change was the central goal and that relying on bombing was a “cockamamie” strategy pushed by Israeli leadership.
Iran War Strengthened an Anti‑US Entente
- The Iran war pushed Russia, China, and Turkey closer to an entente because they have shared interest in preventing Iran's defeat.
- Mearsheimer notes those powers benefit if the US is bogged down, weakening US influence in East Asia and Ukraine.