Switched On The Hydrogen Hurdle: Costs, Policy and Progress
Nov 5, 2025
Join Martin Tengler, head of hydrogen research at BloombergNEF, as he navigates the complex world of hydrogen energy. Discover why hydrogen's progress has stalled, yet it's still vital for hard-to-abate sectors like shipping and aviation. Tengler explores the contrasting strategies of the US favoring blue hydrogen while China scales green hydrogen, and highlights India's low-cost production potential. Dive into the challenges of policy gaps and high costs holding back deployment, all while revealing the promising future of hydrogen technologies.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Where Hydrogen Makes Most Sense
- Existing industrial uses (fertilizer, refining, methanol) are the most obvious near-term hydrogen markets.
- New demand likely comes from shipping, aviation and steel as the energy system decarbonizes.
2030 Forecast Falls Far Short
- BNEF forecasts about 5.5 million tonnes of green and blue hydrogen by 2030, roughly half green and half blue.
- That equals only ~5% of today's 100 million tonnes of gray hydrogen demand, far below developer and government ambitions.
Cost Declines Lag Expectations
- Costs have fallen slower than expected, keeping green hydrogen expensive versus fossil alternatives.
- Large deployment thus depends on government incentives to bridge the price gap.