Columbia Energy Exchange Iran Conflict Brief: The War's Lasting Impact on Gulf States
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Apr 1, 2026 Robin Mills, Dubai-based energy analyst and CEO of Qamar Energy with 20+ years in Middle East oil and gas. He describes daily life under drone and missile alerts. He explains why reopening the Strait of Hormuz is risky and how Iran might sustain closures. He outlines risks to Gulf economic diversification and why LNG recovery could take years.
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Living With Daily Drone Alerts In Dubai
- Daily life in Dubai remains mostly normal despite frequent missile and drone alerts.
- Robin Mills says alerts occur once or twice a day, tourists have left, and schools teach virtually, but physical damage in the city is minimal.
Iranian Control Makes Hormuz Reopening Fragile
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force is risky and may not restore safe maritime traffic.
- Robin Mills notes almost no ships will transit without Iranian clearance, with some vessels reportedly paying up to $2 million each to pass.
Iran Wants Long Term Escalation Dominance
- Iran seeks durable deterrence by demonstrating it can disrupt Gulf energy flows and make future attacks politically costly.
- Mills argues Iran will restrict traffic longer to impose economic pain and deter future Western interventions.
