Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to assess an economy that looks strong on paper—but feels weak for most Americans. While the top third of earners are doing well, lower-income households are tightening their belts as consumer spending slows and job creation stagnates. Zandi warns of a 30–40% chance of a recession by 2026, citing the drag from federal job cuts, the drying up of COVID relief funds, and the destabilizing effects of rising tariffs and electricity costs.
They also dig into the booming—but risky—AI sector, where soaring valuations and limited job growth may be setting up the next market correction. Gold prices are surging, commercial real estate is slumping, and housing shortages are widening for middle-class renters. With Americans increasingly unable to move for better opportunities and faith in Washington deteriorating, Zandi and Todd explore whether the U.S. economy can remain the world’s “safe haven” — or if 2026 could be the year that confidence finally cracks.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:00 The economy is only good for the top 1/3rd of earners
02:00 Lower income earners are struggling
03:30 Signs of a consumer pullback are starting to show up
05:00 The economy isn’t creating many jobs
05:30 Chance of a recession is forecast at 30-40% in 2026
07:15 The economic impact of the cuts to federal workforce
09:00 Loss of 100k+ federal jobs will be a drag on the economy
10:00 Covid money is drying up in state and local government budgets
10:30 AI is starting to have impact on the job force
13:00 Data center investment creates wealth but not jobs
14:30 Are the AI stocks creating a bubble?
15:30 Investors may be a bit over their skis with AI
16:45 Stock market could be headed for a massive correction
18:00 Stock price to earnings ratios are at historic high
19:30 Tariff impacts starting to show up, AI providing a tailwind for economy
21:00 Economy is very vulnerable to unforeseen shocks
21:45 Price of gold at all time high, a warning sign?
23:30 Uncertainty around American economy driving up gold price
24:45 Risk of American economy not being considered a “Safe Haven”
26:00 Loss of safe haven status means higher interest rates
26:30 Impact of rising electricity prices on the economy
28:30 Oil and gas prices have stayed relatively low
29:30 Why haven’t investors flocked to real estate as an investment?
30:30 The price of commercial real estate is down substantially
31:45 High interest rates have cooled demand for residential real estate
33:15 The high end rental market is oversupplied
34:00 Workforce/middle income housing is in short supply
35:30 Housing issues vary by city and region, hard to address nationally
36:45 How much would the economy benefit from domestic migration?
38:30 Aging population a big factor in lack of domestic migration
39:00 Most Americans can’t afford to move
40:15 Impact of America’s broken politics on the economy
42:00 Will issues with China’s economy affect the globe?
43:00 Level of risk going into 2026?
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The Chuck ToddCast 