Macro Voices MacroVoices #524 Simon White: War + Inflation = More Inflation
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Mar 19, 2026 
Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist known for slide-driven inflation analysis, and Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and energy markets expert. They discuss inflation risk framed against 1970s shocks. Topics include food and fertilizer-driven CPI pressure, Strait of Hormuz disruptions and oil tightness, private credit fragility, and why commodities and gold may behave differently in a reaccelerating inflation regime.
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Breakevens Understate True Inflation Risk
- Break-evens have barely risen despite rising short-term inflation expectations; markets expect a quick return to target.
- Simon argues real yields have driven recent nominal moves, creating complacency about sustained inflation risks.
Yield Curve Likely To Steepen In A Stagflationary Shock
- The yield-curve response could mirror 1973: real yields fall while break-evens rise, producing stagflation and curve steepening.
- Simon expects long-dated break-evens to rise and the curve to steepen unless policy credibility shifts strongly hawkish.
Reassess Dollar As Safe Haven In This Crisis
- Don't assume the dollar will rally as in past risk-off events because capital flows now differ and equity outflows can be dollar-negative.
- Simon highlights weaker foreign bond flows and large unhedged equity exposures that limit typical dollar safe-haven demand.